The console on everyone’s mind right now is the Nintendo Switch, given that it will be released in a month at the conclusion of Nintendo’s oddly subdued and hurried marketing campaign for the system. It’s stretching the idea of what “next gen” really means at this point, as yes, it’s a new generation for Nintendo, but instead of significantly upgraded horsepower, it focuses instead on its portable functionality as a handheld. This isn’t to say it’s “worse,” but in this case, a new generation means something else besides a pure power upgrade over its existing competition.
But the definition of “next gen” is being tested in other ways as well. We’ve already seen Sony come out with a system they claim is most definitely not a new console generation, but merely an upgrade for “premium” consumers in the PS4 Pro. But now, by the end of the year, Microsoft will enter the game with an upgrade of their own, and try to get the last laugh with the Xbox Scorpio.
Truth be told, we know very little about the Scorpio at this point, only that it exists, and Microsoft has released a few specs along with the claim that it will be the most powerful console ever made. That sounds a bit grandiose, but it will almost certainly be true, with an extra year of development time over the PS4 Pro, and Microsoft realizing they need to reclaim the upper hand when it comes to power, as that was a pervading narrative throughout the original PS4 vs. XB1 console race.
I am very curious to see not only what happens when the Scorpio arrives this holiday, but also how Microsoft is going to sell it. This week, there was a bit of non-news made when an Indie dev unwisely took to NeoGAF to called the PS4 Pro a “half-assed” upgrade, while saying the Scorpio was a more dramatic leap forward.
Stupid flamewar drama aside, it does raise a larger point about how Microsoft will position the Scorpio. Is it going to follow in Sony’s footsteps and declare outright that the Scorpio is not a next gen console? Or is it going to push the red button and say yes, this is our next gen system that just so happens to be fully backward compatible as well.
The problem is that four years after the launch of a console, most consumers are not going to be ready for an entirely new system, particularly one that is not as dramatic of a leap forward as past generations have been. Microsoft may try to spin the Scorpio as true next-gen in a turn of marketing, and that might pay off, but it seems like there’s an equal chance it could backfire as well.
Microsoft will finally have the advantage of the (hopefully) indisputable fact that they have a more powerful console than Sony, but what exactly do they do with that information? Unless the gap is very wide, unless they can throw up side-by-sides and show a significant difference between PS4 Pro and Scorpio, it’s going to be a tough sell to the 75 million people who already own an Xbox One, PS4 or PS4 Pro, not to mention however many million just picked up a Switch in the past nine months.
Sony may have debuted the weaker system, but the early release has come with a few advantages as well. Sony has more or less doubled the sales of the Xbox One by most estimates, and releasing a more powerful version of their system before has Microsoft debuted their own upgrade means they can either A) reinforce the faithful to their side or B) convert some Xbox One owners who wish they’d picked “the winner” from the start.
We’re about to head into a full year where Sony has both the PS4 and PS4 Pro for sale before the Scorpio even arrives, which is almost certainly going to increase their lead further. This is why it makes the most sense to me for Microsoft to try to change the narrative by making Scorpio not “Xbox One Plus,” but “Xbox Two,” or something similar. With this storyline in place, Microsoft can say something along the lines of “Sony is the only one without a next gen system” given that the PS4 Pro is still just an “upgrade” and now both Microsoft and Nintendo will have “new” consoles. The fact that the Xbox One lost to PS4 in sales no longer matters because this is now a new console generation and Sony doesn’t even have a horse in the race.
That would mostly be marketing though, not necessarily reality. Sony will still be selling loads of PS4s and PS4 Pros, and the problem is that if Microsoft does go the whole nine yards and declare a new generation has started, there are certain things that will feel pretty disingenuous about that.
Yes, the difference in power and functionality will probably not be like the leap from Xbox to 360 or 360 to One which is a significant issue, but past that, it’s not really a new console generation unless you’re winding down the old one. But Microsoft will obviously continue to sell at least Slims, if not original Ones and Slims, alongside Scorpio. And it certainly seems incredibly unlikely they will discontinue games support for non-Scorpio systems. Like the Pro, the idea is that it’s a seamless upgrade losing nothing from the games catalog because of continued support for both pieces of hardware, old and new.
The problem for both Sony and Microsoft is that it’s often hard enough to get people to buy new consoles when there is whole new slate of exclusive games to be played. It should be an even tougher sell when the new system plays all the same games, just a little “better.” Players who aren’t upgrading don’t really feel like they’re missing out on much because it isn’t like there are games coming out for these systems they can’t play.
Both Sony and Microsoft seem to be pushing for a “phone upgrade” model of console development, something that has never really been tested in the industry before. It seems to be going…okay for Sony, but there’s been a lot of developer grumbling about the split, and I’m not sure we have any hard numbers about Pro sales specifically, as from what I’ve seen, when Sony talks sales, they’re now just combining SKUs.
Maybe Microsoft can totally change this paradigm with a more powerful system and a different approach to marketing. But it’s a strange position to be in given the current state of the industry, even if they can lay claim to being king of horsepower mountain.
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