Brexit

Theresa May Will See Brexit Through to the Dark, Bitter End

The prime minister survived her vote of no confidence. Britain may not be so lucky.
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PM May speaks to the press ahead of a meeting with European Union leaders on October 17, 2018.By Jasper Juinen/Bloomberg/Getty Images.

Winston Churchill once said, “If you’re going through hell, keep going.” Theresa May appears to have taken that sentiment to heart. Late Wednesday evening, the embattled British prime minister survived a dramatic vote of no confidence in Parliament, where M.P.s remain bitterly divided over Brexit. May celebrated the final tally—200 votes in favor of her leadership to 117 against—in characteristic style, appearing outside Downing Street to deliver a short speech promising to deliver “a better future for this country—a Brexit that delivers on the vote that people gave, that brings back control of our money, our borders and our laws, that protects jobs, security and the union, that brings the country back together, rather than entrenching division.” Her mandate, she declared, had been renewed.

And yet, despite May’s victory over her hardline critics, the Brexit crisis has merely been delayed. The reality is that a third of her party, including many outside the Jacob Rees-Mogg-fronted European Research Group, voted against her. A country plagued by rancor and dissent in the two years since the referendum vote will remain intractably so. Parliament is still far away from agreeing on a deal that would prevent Britain from crashing out of the E.U.

To remain prime minister, May had to trade some measure of dignity. Patchwork accounts from the meeting of the 1922 Committee, where May made her closing argument to the backbenchers, reveal she offered a concession to critics by vowing not to fight the next general election in 2022 (a snap election might be another matter), and would simply see Britain through to the conclusion of the Brexit process. The feint appeared to forestall the more devastating outcome of a successful no confidence vote, which would have triggered a Conservative leadership election, inevitably producing an even more disruptive leader.

The dramatic scene was set in motion Monday when, to avoid losing by a substantial margin, May abruptly rescinded a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal just hours after Cabinet ministers confirmed it was set to go ahead—becoming the first leader to halt a vote on a major international treaty for at least 70 years. News of the deferred vote was met with a raucous response from lawmakers. One particularly frustrated Labour M.P. snatched the golden ceremonial mace, which symbolizes Parliament’s royal authority.

May’s options continue to be constrained by cruel political realities. On Tuesday, the prime minister had set off on a European tour to convince E.U. top brass to help rescue her Brexit deal. The primary point of contention: the much-derided “backstop,” insisted on by Brussels, that would automatically kick in during the Brexit transition period if the U.K. and E.U. failed to broker a trade deal. The backstop would keep the U.K. in the customs union and preserve significant aspects of the single market, so as to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic—a condition of the Good Friday Agreement. But it would also effectively bind the U.K. to E.U. control ad infinitum. As predicted, May’s desperate entreaties to amend the backstop failed to bend the will of European leaders who, confronted with swelling nationalist movements on multiple fronts, have explicitly rejected renegotiating the deal already on the table. “I will meet @theresa_may this evening in Brussels,” tweeted Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, Tuesday morning. “I remain convinced that the #Brexit deal we have is the best - and only - deal possible. There is no room for renegotiation, but further clarifications are possible.”

Having survived the vote of no confidence, May’s leverage will have little increased in those negotiations, especially given that her time in office is limited. Still, she remained resolute. “For my part, I have heard what the House of Commons said about the Northern Ireland backstop and, when I go to the European Council tomorrow, I will be seeking legal and political assurances that will assuage the concerns that members of Parliament have on that issue,” she promised Wednesday evening. And yet, all the same domestic problems remain. At the end of the day, Parliament only has three real options before it, whether or not May is prime minister. There is the deal May already negotiated with the E.U., no deal, or no Brexit. (If May is able to amend the first option, she could deliver a soft "Brexit in Name Only," pleasing nobody but preserving Britain as a functioning political and economic entity.)

Barring some miracle, it is hard to conceive of any political coalition that will agree to any of these options. The Democratic Unionist Party, which props up May’s government, is vehemently opposed to a hard border with Ireland; the Tories are so severed between Remain and Brexit that they have essentially mutated into two factions; and Labour remains hopelessly confused, torn between protecting the Brexit voters spanning its heartlands and the vehement Remainers that populate the cities.

If Wednesday’s vote demonstrated anything, it is that May’s only valuable asset is her ramshackle opposition, which is alternatively too inept or too arrogant to contest her tenacious grip on power. She must hope that some combination of the two will save her, when she next attempts to persuade Parliament to approve her deal, before a deadline of January 21. In the likely event that the deal fails, there is mounting speculation she will have to return to the people, and weather the ensuing turmoil.