All the makings for a transformative race were in place, one that would give NASCAR a much-needed boost following a week where the sport’s most popular figure announced his pending retirement and a string of races produced uninspiring television ratings.
And on the track, Richmond International Raceway delivered last Sunday, hosting one of the better Monster Energy Cup Series races of the season. A classic short track battle with no shortage of passing, three- and sometimes four-wide action, plenty of dramatic twists, a host of notable names in contention, and a finish in doubt until the very end.
So why then were the grandstands sparse and the television ratings disappointing?
Why did only an estimated 30,000 show up to watch, according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch? Why did the Toyota Owners 400 equal the least-watched spring Richmond race since 2001, according to Sports Media Watch? Why did one team executive tell SB Nation he spent Monday and Tuesday calling sponsors to assuage concerns that the sky wasn’t falling and NASCAR was still a worthwhile investment?
Throughout the week there have been no shortage of theories volleyed on social media and talk radio as to why Richmond was a bust at the ticket office and a dud on television. The list of reasons includes:
- An unseasonably warm Virginia afternoon with the temperature in the low 90s for a race that before 2016 had annually been conducted on Saturday night. “I mean, it's 90 degrees and coverage on TV is pretty excellent,” third-place finisher Denny Hamlin said. “It's tough to sit in the bleachers when it's 90.”
- Three Cup races in the same region within a five-week span was asking too much of fans and spread them out among Richmond, Martinsville Speedway (April 2), and Bristol Motor Speedway (April 24).
- The current schedule featuring 38 races over 41 weeks (36 point races, plus two exhibitions) is simply too robust with too many races having distances that exceed three hours; a less than ideal combination in an age of instant gratification.
- Consumers have more options than ever before, and with America no longer considered a car culture hub, they are tuning in or watching a race on television of any kind isn’t appealing. Evidence supported by roughly 7,000 spectators attending an IndyCar race Saturday night at Phoenix International Raceway, according to the Associated Press.
Each offers varying degrees of justification, yet outside of the weather, none could be considered unforeseen. Which leads to the question: What further steps can NASCAR take to combat what is now a decade-plus slide?
Hamlin tweeted his list of the three most important things he would like to see changed within the sport, while Brad Keselowski stressed it was time for the industry to collaborate and come up with fresh concepts to spur a turnaround.
1. Schedule (32 events,weeknights, 2.5 hour race length)
— Denny Hamlin (@dennyhamlin) May 2, 2017
2. Get cars (sideskirts,quarter panels) off the ground
3. Upgrade track facilities https://t.co/ieYi5Zcclq
“The sport is bigger than one person and their specific ideas,” Keselowski tweeted. “My answer: 1) Industry must work together, 2) Be bold, [and] 3) Take nothing for granted.”
As if it wasn’t already apparent, any and all ideas should be on the table.
But what makes the situation exasperating is that NASCAR made a concentrated effort to seek outside council on ways to improve. Soliciting feedback and being open to change is something the sanctioning body has made considerable strides in, polar opposite of the iron fist mentality it had for years and years.
Last summer, pushed by drivers, NASCAR went with a lower downforce aerodynamic rules package for this season that better allows drivers to showcase their skills. Most pronounced, this past offseason saw NASCAR executives, drivers, car owners, network executives, and track promoters unite in an unprecedented showing of collaboration to combat the growing list of issues within the sport.
From that came the implementation of a three-stage format that incentivizes drivers with bonus points that apply toward the championship so that they push hard from green flag to checkered flag in every regular season race.
Across the board, both changes created the intended effect. Stage racing has stimulated the middle portions of races that before often saw drivers prefer a conservative approach, and the new rules package is a large contributor as to why the on-track product is improved with increased passing. At Richmond, there were 2,495 green-flag passes, compared to 2,083 green-flag passes in the same race the year previous, and 1,688 green-flag passes in 2015.
And yet, while none of the decision-makers expected an immediate bounceback and stressed time was needed to cultivate new fans and demonstrate that NASCAR was a sport on the upswing, concrete evidence is lacking to suggest such a rejuvenation is afoot.
In fact, conventional wisdom suggests the downturn will continue.
Nine races into the season, ratings and attendance have not only not improved — or at a minimum, flattened out — they’ve continued to dip. Six of eight Cup races (not including the one-day postponement at Bristol) have suffered viewership declines. Last week, Speedway Motorsports Inc., the operator of eight tracks that host a combined 13 Cup races (including the non-points All-Star Race), reported a first-quarter profit loss where revenue from ticket sales dropped by 4.5 percent from the same quarter a year ago.
Soft attendance will likely continue into next year with Dale Earnhardt Jr. announcing last week he will retire from full-time competition at the end of the current season. NASCAR’s 14-time most popular driver joins Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, and Tony Stewart as superstars who’ve all walked away within the past two years, and tracks have already cited the retirements of Gordon and Stewart as reasons for fewer people buying tickets.
NASCAR CEO and chairman Brian France spoke confidently at Richmond that the sport he oversees is experiencing the same trials and tribulations other professional leagues are facing. Consumers have more options than ever before, sports no longer remain atop the priority list of many — especially for millennials — and while there are new avenues to view games and races, that doesn’t counteract all those who’ve cut the cord.
"We're not isolated here," France said. "Every sport is trying to unlock the new consumption levels and fan interest by a younger demographic. Of course we love our core fan and everyone does, but every sport is thinking carefully about how to reach the millennial fan to get them excited about their sport."
All fair points and a sound, levelheaded mindset to have amidst a search for tangible solutions.
The optimism is not unfounded, but Monster Energy is the key.
Along with the enhanced racing brought about by the three-stage format and updated aero package, NASCAR has an impressive crop of young drivers that it can build around for years to come. Many times over, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott have demonstrated they are outwardly talented, much in the fashion Stewart and Gordon did before them.
Within the industry the hope is Monster Energy, the new entitlement Cup Series sponsor, will be the bridge that brings NASCAR to a fresh, younger audience that may not have familiarity with stock car racing. The energy drink company is expected to be the conduit that effectively markets the 24-year-old Larson and the 21-year-old Elliott into the crossover stars that NASCAR is lacking, following the departures of Gordon, Edwards, Stewart, and soon, Earnhardt.
Being NASCAR’s biggest partner is a role Monster has grown increasingly comfortable with, after an initial ramp-up period brought about by the deal between the two parties not being finalized until December. Monster’s fan zone display at various tracks has included an appearance by Rob Gronkowski at the season-opening Daytona 500, a stunt motorcycle shows, MMA fights at the upcoming All-Star Race.
It’s these initiatives NASCAR is banking on to draw new and younger fans to the track, while also offering longtime fans more bang for their buck when attending a race. That Monster signed only a two-year contract (with options) raises concern about the long-term viability of the partnership, though any boost even in the short-term is welcomed.
Whether NASCAR ultimately emerges from its current descent to become a major sports property again will be determined not so much on the track, but off it. Competitive racing can only go so far, and just as Gordon and Earnhardt carried NASCAR to unprecedented heights on their megawatt personalities, Larson and Elliott will need to do the same.
The harsh reality, however, is Larson and Elliott are still not close to being the next mainstream breakout stars that NASCAR desperately needs. They may each be brilliant behind the wheel, but they have a long way to go in the charisma department that compels the casual observer to watch them race on Sundays. And if neither can assume that mantle, then the television ratings and attendance figures seen at Richmond will become the norm. A standard no one within the industry is prepared to deal with.