About 900,000 British citizens are living in other European Union countries – fewer than the previous widely quoted estimate of 1.2 million, according to research by the Office of National Statistics.
The new lower estimate is likely to have implications for the forthcoming negotiations between Britain and the EU over the future residency rights of the 3.15 million EU nationals living in the UK and British citizens in the rest of the bloc.
Theresa May has refused to unilaterally guarantee the residency rights of EU nationals living in Britain until the EU agrees reciprocal rights for Britons living in other EU countries. The lower estimate for Britons in Europe could affect the relative weight of each bargaining chip in the forthcoming talks.
The ONS research confirms that Spain is home to the largest number of British citizens in the EU, at 308,805. A third of them – 101,045 – are aged 65 or over. The next most popular countries for British citizens living abroad are France, with 157,062, Ireland, 112,090 and Germany, 96,200.
An age breakdown of the figures show that 189,000 of the 890,000 Britons living in the EU are aged 65 or over, with the bulk of them presumably retired. About a third of the Britons living in Malta, Cyprus and Portugal are also over 65.
The largest age groups, however, are the 280,000 30- to 49-year-olds and 280,000 50- to 64-year-olds, suggesting there is a significant British element in the EU labour market. Their ability to work in the union could be severely restricted if free movement access to jobs is brought to an end.
The ONS figures, based on Eurostat data from 2010-11 national censuses, estimates there were 890,299 British citizens living in other EU countries in 2011. The figures cover only those citizens resident in a country for more than 12 months.
The official statisticians believe their estimate is more authoritative that the previously widely quoted United Nations statistics, which showed there were 1.22 million British people living in other EU states.
The UN figures are based on country of birth rather than nationality, which means that many UK-born Irish and Polish citizens are included, while British citizens born overseas are excluded. “We believe it is better to use the more detailed census data in order to estimate the number of British citizens living abroad,” said the ONS.
Nicholas Hatton, chair of the3million, which is campaigning for the residency rights of EU citizens in the UK, said the lower estimate would make no difference to their case. “It is a question of basic decency that the 3 million should be treated properly. Whether there are less than 1 million or 1.2 million or 1.4 million Britons living in other European countries is not really relevant,” he said.
“Our rights are within the responsibility of the British government. They could guarantee these rights today if they wanted to. We do not agree that both groups of people should be used as bargaining chips.”