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Many highly-rated players dropped out of first round. Which one will Edmonton Oilers draft?

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On Day 2 of the NHL entry draft, the Edmonton Oilers have the sixth pick, 38th overall in the draft, and there’s plenty of top drawer offensive talent remaining, at least if you go by the consensus of public draft experts.

I’m not expert on draft-age players, but I’ve compiled a consensus list from 16 people who are, everyone from Corey Pronman of The Athletic to TSN’s Bob McKenzie, from Allan Mitchell of Lowetide to Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News.

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According to their consensus rankings (top 57 player listed here), the 16th best player in the draft, Arthur Kaliyev, a high-scoring winger on the Hamilton Bulldogs, is the top player left in the draft.

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Will he fall to the Oilers at 38th overall?

Unlikely, but who would have expected him to fall out of the first round? Every single one of the 15 draft experts saw Kaliyev as a first round pick, with Mitchell of Lowetide ranking him highest at 5th overall.

Other players seen as first round picks such as Raphael Lavoie, ranked 19th overall, Bobby Brink, 21st overall, Nils Hoglander, 27th overall, Matt Robertson, 28th overall, Pavel Dorofeyev, 30th overall and Nick Robertson, 26th overall are still available.

One of those seven high-ranked players will most certainly be available when the Oilers pick.

Shot up and shot down

The biggest reach picks, if you compare where they went to the consensus of the public draft experts?

  • Nolan Foote, plus 24, ranked 51st in the draft consensus went 27th to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
  • Simon Holmstrom, plus 21, ranked 44th went 23rd to the New York Islanders
  • Lassi Thomson, plus 17, ranked 36th went 19th to the Ottawa Senators.
  • Ryan Johnson, plus 14, ranked 45th went 31st to the Buffalo Sabres.
  • Samuel Poulin, plus 13, ranked 34th went 21st to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
  • John Beecher, plus 11, ranked 41st went 30th to the Boston Bruins.
  • Moritz Seider, plus 11, ranked 17th went 6th to the Detroit Red Wings.
  • Spencer Knight, plus 10, ranked 23rd went 13th to the Florida Panthers.
  • Brayden Tracey, plus 10, ranked 39th went 29th to the Anaheim Ducks.
  • Thomas Bjornfot, plus 9, ranked 31 went 22 to the Los Angeles Kings.
  • Philip Broberg, plus 5, ranked 13th went 8th to the Edmonton Oilers.
  • Connor McMichael, plus 4, ranked 29th went 25th to the Washington Capitals.
  • Kirby Dach, plus 4, ranked 7th went 3rd to the Chicago Blackhawks.
  • Vic Soderstrom, plus 4, ranked 15th went 11th to the Arizona Coyotes.
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On the other side, the biggest drops from the consensus rankings to draft order were:

  • Ryan Suzuki, minus 8, ranked 20th went 28th to the Carolina Hurricanes.
  • Peyton Krebs, minus 8, ranked ninth went 17th to the Vegas Golden Knights.
  • Trevor Zegras, minus 4, ranked fifth went 9th to the Anaheim Ducks.
  • Cole Caufield, minus 5, ranked 10th went 15 to the Montreal Canadiens.

It’s too early to say if the players who shot up were reaches and if the players who shot down were steals. Who knows? It’ll take four or five years to sort out all that.

For now, here’s hoping the Oilers can come up with a true steal with the 38th overall pick.

The Cult of Hockey at the NHL draft

8th overall: Ken Holland on hot seat for taking Philip Broberg, by Bruce McCurdy

Twitter reacts to Broberg pick, by David Staples

Who dropped most and who shot up highest on Day 1 of NHL draft, by David Staples

38th overall: Oilers take Raphael Lavoie, by Kurt Leavins

85th overall: KHL rookie-of-the-year goalie Ilya Konovalov snapped up by Oilers, by David Staples

100th overall: Oilers take older sniper Matej Blumel, by Bruce McCurdy 

162nd overall: Tomas Mazura, a Czech attacker heading to U.S. college hockey, by @Kurt Leavins

193rd overall: Attacking Russian forward Maxim Denezhkin, by David Staples 

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