Tweet This
Quick Hits: If you're planning to buy a home, do it now before prices go higher. Investments in single-family rental properties have good potential in the next few years, as do investments in housing developments, especially apartments. Mortgages written now have low risk but the risk of a price boom after a few years means underwriting standards should get tighter rather than looser. It's a good time to invest in retail businesses, in Denton County in particular.
The local economy is a mix of old (aerospace, computer chips, telecommunications) and growing (transport, energy, healthcare) sectors and a concentration in finance and business services. The technical nature of many jobs provides high wages that support a strong real estate market. Lower oil prices have recently slowed growth, especially in the Ft. Worth area, but the longer term outlook for the energy sector is good.
The population has grown at twice the national rate for years, pushing home prices higher because builders can't keep up. In Dallas, prices are 29 percent higher in the last three years, in Ft. Worth 23 percent. Even with these increases, prices are still in line with incomes - around $200,000 - and you can expect further increases in the next few years. If you want to buy a home, don't wait. I expect prices to rise at 10 percent a year in Dallas, slightly less in Ft. Worth.
Rents are relatively high compared to home prices, which can bring good returns for investors in rental properties, especially single-family homes . Dallas has grown rapidly because many young people have moved there; they favor renting, at least at first. Half the households in Dallas County are renters, 40 percent in Tarrant County, fewer in Denton and Collin Counties. Investors can expect good rental returns and good equity gains over the next few years.
Right now home prices are well matched with local income levels, which means mortgages have average risk. And in fact, mortgages have low risk right now because rising prices will protect against losses. But several more years of sharp price increases will create an over-priced market - at that time new mortgages will have above-average risk. It's too early to know if a price boom and bust or a plateau soft landing will be the result.
The metro area is growing at an uneven pace, with the slowest growth in Tarrant County and the fastest growth in Denton and Collin Counties. Over the next three years I expect 20,000 new single-family homes built in both Denton and Collin Counties. In Dallas County I expect 50,000 new homes and 50,000 apartments.
Within the area, Dallas County has the highest proportion of Latinos and immigrants, Collin County has the highest proportion of Asians, college graduates, higher average income and home prices. The average age is low in all counties, with few retirees. Because home prices there are lower compared to rents, investments in single-family rentals in Dallas and Tarrant Counties may give the best returns.
Growth in retail businesses has followed population growth across the area, with the strongest retail growth in Denton County, 18 percent over the past two years. Even so, Denton County remains under served for both retail stores and restaurants compared to the area generally and to Dallas County in particular.
