In attempting to drum up parliamentary support for her unloved Brexit deal, Theresa May has at times taken on the tone of a world-weary parent whose child is mid-tantrum in a grocery-store aisle. Or the fatalism of a prime minister tasked with leading her country off a cliff. “It’s the only possible deal,” she explained over the weekend, just after the agreement had been approved by E.U. leaders. Indeed, May’s best argument is that her Brexit deal is the least bad in a series of terrible options. According to a report published by her own government on Wednesday, the current Withdrawal Agreement would likely shrink Britain’s G.D.P. by 3.9 percent over 15 years. Other misery-inducing alternatives include a Norway-style E.U. membership and a more Canadian arrangement. The worst option, of course, would be no deal at all, which the government predicts would shave a whopping 9.3 percentage points off the British economy.
It’s a far cry from the heady days of the Brexit campaign, when Leavers promised an additional £350 million a week to spend on the N.H.S. should Britain leave the bloc. But the Brexiteers, rather than repenting in the face of such a dire economic prognosis, have largely dismissed the government’s accounting. “We were told during the referendum campaign that we’d each lose £4,300 and that there would be a recession and higher unemployment,” said former international development secretary Priti Patel. “And yet we’ve seen record wage growth and record employment levels. If ministers spent time preparing for a no-deal scenario rather than dreaming up silly scare stories, we could all make a success of our post-Brexit future.” She was echoed by former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab, who told The Daily Telegraph that the report “looks like a rehash of Project Fear”—referring to the theory that stories about the N.H.S. stockpiling blood and police preparing for no-deal riots were a deliberate scare tactic designed to throw a wrench in Brexit negotiations.
May’s Cabinet, meanwhile, is trying to spin the loss of a couple G.D.P. points as a win, all things considered. “If you look at this purely from an economic point of view, there will be a cost from leaving the European Union because there will be impediments to our trade,” U.K. Chancellor Philip Hammond acknowledged Wednesday, as he struggled to sell May’s plan. “If the only consideration was the economy, then the analysis shows that clearly remaining in the European Union would be a better outcome for the economy, but not by much. Clearly, people don’t only look at the economy, they also look at the political and constitutional benefits of leaving the European Union.” May’s outline, at least, “minimizes those costs,” he told the BBC.
Hammond’s floundering salesmanship appears to be part of a larger campaign by Downing Street to rally support ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote on December 11. An official color-coded P.R. grid leaked to Politico shows Wednesday was designated “economy” day; subsequent days will be variously dedicated to things like security, international trade, and immigration. December 9 has been penciled in as “[Blank]”—an ominous reference to a possible debate between May and Jeremy Corbyn, which might (appropriately) air before the finale of I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here.
Remainers seized on the report to reiterate calls for a second referendum. “It took until this morning for the chancellor to finally admit it: we would be better off staying in the E.U.,” said M.P. Alison McGovern. “He confessed that the government’s deal would bring ‘impediments’ to trade. That means a threat to jobs. Less economic activity means less money for hospitals, schools, and police. And nobody put that on the side of their bus two years ago.”
Sadly for May and her color-coded schema, it is widely believed that M.P.s will not pass her deal, which has allied Remainers and Brexiteers in mutual alarm at the prospect of being bound to E.U. rules without leverage (“Sounds like a great deal for the E.U.,” chimed Donald Trump, an interjection that is likely to weaken May’s hand). This inevitability may be lost on Downing Street, which, according to leaked details obtained by BuzzFeed News, is already gaming out events under the assumption that May will win the vote—an exercise a government spokesperson said is more or less standard. Others within Whitehall, however, aren’t convinced. “We’ve hit the iceberg, the ship is sinking,” one source told BuzzFeed. “But Number 10 are re-arranging the deck chairs.”
