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Beware, tech world: 'Easy growth is behind us,' says Mary Meeker

Everything from population growth to smartphone adoption has hit a wall. But there are still areas of opportunity, says the Kleiner Perkins partner known for her annual Internet report.

Roger Cheng Former Executive Editor / Head of News
Roger Cheng (he/him/his) was the executive editor in charge of CNET News, managing everything from daily breaking news to in-depth investigative packages. Prior to this, he was on the telecommunications beat and wrote for Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal for nearly a decade and got his start writing and laying out pages at a local paper in Southern California. He's a devoted Trojan alum and thinks sleep is the perfect -- if unattainable -- hobby for a parent.
Expertise Mobile, 5G, Big Tech, Social Media Credentials
  • SABEW Best in Business 2011 Award for Breaking News Coverage, Eddie Award in 2020 for 5G coverage, runner-up National Arts & Entertainment Journalism Award for culture analysis.
Connie Guglielmo SVP, AI Edit Strategy
Connie Guglielmo is a senior vice president focused on AI edit strategy for CNET, a Red Ventures company. Previously, she was editor in chief of CNET, overseeing an award-winning team of reporters, editors and photojournalists producing original content about what's new, different and worth your attention. A veteran business-tech journalist, she's worked at MacWeek, Wired, Upside, Interactive Week, Bloomberg News and Forbes covering Apple and the big tech companies. She covets her original nail from the HP garage, a Mac the Knife mug from MacWEEK, her pre-Version 1.0 iPod, a desk chair from Next Computer and a tie-dyed BMUG T-shirt. She believes facts matter.
Expertise I've been fortunate to work my entire career in Silicon Valley, from the early days of the Mac to the boom/bust dot-com era to the current age of the internet, and interviewed notable executives including Steve Jobs. Credentials
  • Member of the board, UCLA Daily Bruin Alumni Network; advisory board, Center for Ethical Leadership in the Media
Roger Cheng
Connie Guglielmo
2 min read
recode-meeker.jpg

Mary Meeker talks about the broader slowdown in the economy.

Asa Mathat / Recode

Mary Meeker paints a sobering picture that Silicon Valley may want to attention to.

Everything from population growth, global economic expansion, smartphone shipments and, most importantly, the number of new Internet users has hit a wall, according to Meeker, a partner at venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. Meeker is an influential voice in the tech community thanks to her report, which she presented on Wednesday and is embedded below. The data from her findings, which track the shifts in mobile, media and tech, serve as guideposts for tech companies looking for direction.

"The net economic growth is slowing," she said at Re/Code's Code Conference in Ranchos Palos Verdes, California. "Easy growth is behind us."

But Meeker wasn't all doom and gloom. In a slowdown, there are plenty of opportunities for companies that can find more efficient ways of operating. She also noted that the ad business continues to hum, although warned that the proliferation of ad-blockers meant marketers had to get more savvy to get justify their presence.

She pointed to Snapchat and Spotify as examples of companies with good ads.

Meeker also talked up the power of live video, citing Candace Payne, also known as the Chewbacca mom, who became an Internet celebrity through her infectious laugh while trying on a Chewbacca mask on Facebook Live. Thanks to that video, sales of that Chewbacca mask "went through the roof."

As with last year, Meeker was bullish on messaging, calling it the "secret sauce" and noting its ability to be more expressive than just simple texts. The messaging app is increasingly becoming the second home screen on the phone, she said.

There's just as much opportunity in voice as a computing interface, she said, touting the popularity of Amazon's Alexa digital assistant, which is found on its Echo speaker.

"iPhone sales may have peaked in 2015, while Amazon Echo sales are just beginning to take off," she said. "Food for thought."

Lastly, she hit upon the transformation of transportation going on with Uber and other ride-sharing services.

"We may be entering an automotive golden age, take two," she said.