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The first image of a black hole and its fiery halo, released by Event Horizon Telescope astronomers, which is the “most direct proof of their existence”, one of the project's lead scientists said. Photo: AFP
Opinion
David Dodwell
David Dodwell

Why pour billions into searching for a black hole and reaching distant stars when worthier causes exist at home?

  • From photographing a black hole to China’s particle collider, billions are being spent on esoteric physics and space research, which could more fruitfully be allocated to projects that would solve the planet’s pressing problems
You know how we care passionately about pandas, elephants and dolphins – “charismatic animals” – but care little about hyenas, mudskippers or tapeworms that uncharismatically ensure the balance of our natural world? Environmentalists have complained about this bias, at the expense of the mean and ugly biomass that indispensably makes up most of our world.
I recall Atul Gawande, the surgeon, author and adviser to Bill Clinton, complaining about “charismatic medicine”: how every intern wants to be a brain or heart surgeon, rather than deal with mental health or treatment of the elderly.
This week, my hackles were raised by “charismatic science”, triggered by the excitement over “photographs” of a black hole in the M87 galaxy, 54 million light years away. Then there is China’s plan to build a US$4.3 billion Circular Electron Positron Collider, a successor to Geneva’s Large Hadron Collider, to generate masses of Higgs boson particles. There was also the comparatively modest flurry of enthusiasm here in Hong Kong over the University of Hong Kong’s quest to launch a lobster eye X-ray telescope into space to hunt for dark matter in nearby galaxies.
Our fascination with “charismatic science” comes at the expense of much other urgent science. It discomforts me, for example, that Nasa’s Space Shuttle Programme extracted US$196 billion from the US taxpayer over 30 years and 135 space missions, with the International Space Station costing US$160 billion and the Apollo Space Programme a further US$25.4 billion. Meanwhile, America’s roads have fallen to ruin and US$3 billion a year worldwide could reduce malnutrition in the developing world by 36 per cent, perhaps saving 100 million children from starvation.

I’m not saying that all this space stuff is not hugely impressive. Nor that it hasn’t provided thousands of spillovers of value down in the real economy. It has kept thousands of brilliant physicists hard and creatively at work for the past five decades.

But when you do the boring cost-benefit analysis, it is hard to reconcile the billions diverted to this charismatic science, while starving research to understand our much closer deep oceans, or how we might better understand, and reduce, the catastrophic harm caused by extreme weather, or more accurately mapping the impacts of climate change across the world.

Nasa’s space exploration budget for 2019 is US$21.5 billion, a 3.5 per cent increase over 2018, while the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, at the heart of US efforts to understand the oceans and climate change, was allocated just over US$5.5 billion, an 8 per cent cut.

Our obsession with space, which has perhaps been amplified by growing anxiety over the Earth’s capacity to survive human impact, means increasingly preposterous and costly projects have been tabled.

Take the Breakthrough Starshot plan for fleets of microchips, propelled by laser-beam-driven sails, to hurtle past the Alpha Centauri star system at about 20 per cent the speed of light, to capture what information they can. Alpha Centauri is 4.3 light years or 40 trillion km away. The journey would take 20 years, and messages sent back telling us what they discovered would take a further four years to reach us. The project could cost up to US$10 billion – cheap compared to the Apollo mission, I suppose.

China’s Circular Electron Positron Collider, an underground circular tunnel, about 100km in circumference, would be bigger and more powerful than the Large Hadron Collider. It would hurtle particles at close to the speed of light and get them to smash together, releasing for milli-fragments of a second Higgs bosons and other subatomic particles. No one yet knows where a 100km underground tunnel might be built, or how much it might ultimately cost. Remember, Europe’s collider took a coalition of 23 countries 30 years to build.

A further frustration for me is that all of these fantastically expensive projects are justified on two grounds: first, they will help us understand how the universe/solar system/Earth was formed, and, second, they will help us discover extraterrestrial life. I would love to know how many billions have been spent over the past half a century on the unsuccessful effort to discover that we are not alone.

I know there are thousands of scientists out there who desperately want to answer the first question, but how important is it to humanity when comparatively tiny sums could help us answer whether the marine biomass – fish – is in steep decline, and whether this important source of food can sustain us 50 years from now? Or whether declining insect populations worldwide are putting our entire ecosystem in peril?
Russian cosmonaut Oleg Kononenko conducts a spacewalk outside the International Space Station in this image captured from a Nasa video on December 11, 2018. Photo: Reuters

On the second question, I too am fascinated by Enrico Fermi’s “paradox” – the surprising absence of evidence of extraterrestrial life given the size of the universe. With 200-400 billion stars in the Milky Way – each with their own families of planets – there ought statistically to have been many thousands (perhaps millions) of civilisations eager to chat to us. Yet the total silence speaks a thousand words – and provides a fragile basis for still more multibillion-dollar space probes.

While there may be sound scientific explanations to answer Fermi’s paradox, perhaps there is a simple compelling economic one. Any halfway civilised population several dozen light years away with enough common sense to be concerned, above all else, with protecting the security and prosperity of their own “people”, and concerned that they don’t exterminate themselves by leaching their resources dry, might forego efforts to spend billions on multi-generation expeditions to discover perhaps unfriendly neighbours.

Can we please bring scientific priorities back down to Earth?

David Dodwell researches and writes about global, regional and Hong Kong challenges from a Hong Kong point of view

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