Finally, some details about how NASA actually plans to get to Mars

NASA has spent the last six years building the massive Space Launch System rocket, but beyond making general statements about a “Journey to Mars,” the agency has not provided much detail about how the SLS booster would be used to that end. This situation began to change on Tuesday, when the agency’s chief of human spaceflight, Bill Gerstenmaier, briefed the agency’s advisory council on tentative plans for the first dozen launches of the rocket.

During his presentation, Gerstenmaier presented slides outlining the assembly of a “deep space gateway” and subsequent testing of a “deep space transport” system in the vicinity of the Moon. The sequence of missions would culminate in a crewed mission to orbit Mars, but not land, in 2033. Although Gerstenmaier did not identify the funding needed for such a series of events—which would certainly be considerable and require support from the Trump administration—Tuesday’s presentation nonetheless offered an insightful peek into NASA’s future plans.

Deep space gateway

After an initial test flight of the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft in 2018 and a second launch of the rocket to send the Europa Clipper spacecraft to the Jovian moon in 2022, the space agency would set about constructing an outpost in cislunar space, near the Moon. This facility would be smaller than the International Space Station and likely derived from one of six deep space habitat concepts NASA is currently studying. Astronauts would tend the station but not reside there year-round.

NASA would require three SLS launches to assemble the gateway, likely during a period from 2023 through 2025. The first launch would deliver a 40kW power and propulsion system (mainly high-power electric propulsion) to cislunar space, which a crew of four astronauts would deploy during an eight- to 21-day mission. A second launch would deliver the habitation module itself, again during a crewed launch. And a final launch would provide the logistics module for the gateway.

Future flights to the gateway would add airlocks and other facilities that would enable visits by NASA astronauts as well as international and private crew members. Both Gerstenmaier and another NASA official, Jim Free, emphasized the importance of international and commercial partnership in such a facility. “This program requires the private sector to contribute significantly, and it requires international partners,” Gerstenmaier said. “We’re creating a framework, but to make this real, it requires real participation from others.”

Essentially, NASA now seems to be asking academia, the private sector, and other national space agencies to bring ideas about building and using the lunar outpost.

Deep space transport

After establishing the gateway in the mid-2020s, NASA would next move to develop a transport system for human travel beyond the Earth-Moon system. The key component would be a 41-ton spacecraft that includes power systems and a habitation module to provide all of the food, health, and science needs of astronauts for long-duration missions in deep space. According to Gerstenmaier’s charts, which he stressed were provisional, this transport system could be launched as early as 2027.

After the delivery of an additional logistics module, by around 2029, NASA would plan to send a crew of four astronauts on a “checkout” mission aboard the transport vehicle; they would spend between 300 to 400 days in space, near the Moon. The idea would be to test all of the systems on the new spacecraft to ensure their readiness for an extended trip to Mars.

“In 2029 we’re ready to go do a verification flight, where we essentially have the crew stay in the vicinity of the Moon to simulate roughly one year of activity on the way to Mars,” Gerstenmaier said Tuesday. “That verifies that the vehicle you will take to Mars has operated for one year, and it’s ready to go do its three-year requirement.”

If all of these systems check out, during the early 2030s, NASA would launch additional logistics and fuel to the transport vehicle. Then, in 2033, the space agency believes it would be ready for a Mars orbit mission, which would likely involve a Venus flyby and a short stay around Mars. This flight may last as long as three years and would offer no hope for an emergency return once the crew leaves cislunar space.

Sense of urgency

If this all sounds ambitious, it certainly is for an agency that doesn’t even have the present capacity to launch its own astronauts to the International Space Station. But this has long been NASA’s plan, to largely finish work on its deep space vehicles SLS and Orion (a capsule for crew transport to and from the Moon) and prove their technical capability, before providing details about how they will be used.

Now, however, decisions must soon be made. Part of the reason Gerstenmaier talked publicly about these plans Tuesday is that the agency must begin deciding what hardware will fly on the deep space gateway assembly missions in 2023 through 2025. Specifically, what power systems and what habitats are best suited to the task? “We are ready to start putting pencils to paper and cutting hardware for these missions,” he said.

NASA is also trying to convince the Trump administration that it has a sound plan to send humans into deep space. Vice President Mike Pence will probably have a few concerns with the plan outlined by Gerstenmaier. First of all, there are no human missions before about 2023, and Trump officials have made it clear they would like to see some kind of human activity beyond low-Earth orbit before the end of the president’s first term, in 2020. There is no mention of cost, an important factor for an administration seeking to pare non-military discretionary spending. Finally, the Trump administration may yet seek a stronger role for commercial partners in any venture, including more use of private rockets and spacecraft, as opposed to the more costly government vehicles.

It is also not clear how Congress will react during the upcoming budget cycle. Congress has supported SLS and Orion in a bipartisan manner, as those programs have supported jobs in key space states, including Alabama, Florida, Colorado, Texas, and more. But as the spending focus turns to deep space habitats and transportation systems, will Congress be as keen to support large expenditures that may not favor traditional contractors? (So far it has shown limited interest in technologies needed for Mars exploration).

If Congress does not aggressively fund a deep space exploration plan, however, it will be telling about the body’s motivations. They have forced NASA to build the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft at a cost of more than $40 billion. If Congress subsequently fails to provide ample resources to use these vehicles, it acknowledges the programs were simply jobs programs all along.

Listing image by NASA