The Greek in me: How I’d vote

Share

Since I arrived in Athens almost a week ago, I have been wondering how I would vote, in full recognition of the fact that I am not a citizen and have no dazzling insight into the Greek mentality. I have, however, covered the Greek crisis closely since 2010, when the country was shut out of debt markets and needed an international bailout to keep the lights on. I have made at least a dozen trips there since and have a few politically-savvy Greek friends.

I have changed my mind almost every hour of every day. At one point on Thursday, I had decided "Oxi" –No – was the way to go because it would speed up Greece's exit from the euro zone. Greece needed to default on its insanely large debt, which it had no chance of repaying, reprint the drachma and work a deal to stay inside the European Union so the Russian navy wouldn't be invited to park its warships in Piraeus.

Then, running short of cash, I lined up with a small mob at an ATM machine. I asked for €200 ($278), fully expecting to be limited to €60 – the withdrawal cap imposed on Greeks. But I got all I had asked for, immediately felt embarrassed, and shoved the wad in my pocket before anyone could see. I was the guy in the line who needed the money the least, but got the most.

At that point, I decided Yes was the morally and financially right choice, for a No would almost certainly keep the banks closed next week, in spite of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's protests to the contrary. That would cause economic mayhem and likely panic among families whose mattresses were not stuffed with cash.

A Yes vote would almost certainly reopen the banks. Why? Because they live at the mercy of the European Central Bank. Shortly after Mr. Tsipras and his anti-austerity crusaders swept into power, the ECB offered the banks ultra-cheap loans to cover the deposit flight as nervous customers yanked out their cash. Last Sunday, after having given the banks a total of €89-billion, the ECB said enough was enough.

To prevent their outright collapse, the Greek government shut the banks' doors and put the cash withdrawal limits in place. The ECB would probably reward a Yes vote with another shot of emergency loans and a new bailout offer would soon follow. If so, Greeks would, once again, get their money out without restrictions. A No vote? Forget it.

Now it's Friday and I am wondering if a Yes vote would be a vote from the heart, not the mind. To be sure, a Yes would prevent imminent financial collapse, but only at the expense of larding another thick layer of unaffordable loans onto the country. The IMF said as much on Thursday. Greece, which is already carrying €324-billion in loans, needs another €60-billion over the next three years to plug its funding hole, the IMF said. A debt load that high is absurd, which is why the IMF at the same time urged "comprehensive" debt relief for Greece by extending debt maturities to 40 years from 20 years.

My main problem with the Greek referendum is not that there is no right answer – choose your hell – it's that the question itself is a farce. In numbingly technical language it asks voters to reject a highly complicated funding offer from the creditors that was made in late June and no longer officially exists, since it was rejected by Mr. Tsipras & Co. After the offer lapsed, Greece defaulted on a €1.6-billion IMF loan payment.

Mr. Tsipras argues that a democratic No vote would buy him more negotiating clout, forcing the creditors to dilute their austerity demands. Perhaps, but it could equally backfire by boosting the creditors' resolve to show no mercy – all the more so since they patently distrust Mr. Tsipras. An honest referendum would copy the one put before Scots in September, which in simple terms asked whether they wanted to stay in the United Kingdom, or go it alone. Any Greek referendum should be equally simple: Yes or No to the euro.

But simplicity is absent from the ballot on Sunday. To the men and women in Perama, the answer is obvious – No. To me, it's not. So having changed my mind all week, which way am I now leaning just ahead of the referendum?

With great trepidation, I would vote No, not because I like Mr. Tsipras – I don't, because of the phony assurances he is spewing out – but because the Greek economy has no hope of growing and creating jobs under the twin burdens of harsh austerity and a mountain of debt. To be sure, a No vote risks exodus from the euro zone, but it is a risk worth taking. The status quo is untenable.