After seeing its 4G subscriber growth slow substantially in April to 10.1 million new customers (which of course any other company would love to have)
China Mobile’s 4G incremental subscribers increased 71% month to month
China Mobile added at least 16 million new 4G users in the first three months this year but it fell to 10.1 million in April, a 49% decline from March’s results. However in May China Mobile added 17.2 million new 4G subscribers which was the third largest monthly result since the company started rolling out 4G technology in early 2014.
The incremental increase is positive for Apple’s iPhone as it appears that the number of new 4G users for China Mobile in the June quarter will come in around 40 to 45 million vs. 49.1 million in the December quarter and 53 million in the March quarter. It had been looking like China Mobile would have only added about 30 million if the April results had been the new normal for its 4G adds.
The China Mobile quarterly numbers compare to Apple’s total iPhone sales of 74.5 million in the December quarter (China Mobile’s total number of 4G subscribers was 66% of the total), 58.2 million iPhones sold in the March quarter (China Mobile was 91% of the total) and a 50 million or a bit higher result for the just completed June quarter (China Mobile’s new users would be 80% to 90% of Apple’s total). While it is an apples to oranges comparison it is an interesting number to mull on especially if Apple can maintain its market share in China.
Apple still needs a strong June from China Mobile
Steve Milunovich, UBS’s Apple analyst, estimates that China accounted for 28% of Apple’s iPhone shipments in the June 2014 quarter (9.9 million units) and could be 46% of June quarter’s sales or 23 million units (using a 50 million unit estimate). Milunovich also estimates that China accounted for 35% of the March 2015 quarter iPhone sales or 21.4 million units.
If you assume that Apple will sell 50 million iPhones in the June quarter China’s iPhones sales will need to increase 133% year over year and 7% quarter over quarter (23 vs. 21.4 million) but in looking at China Mobile’s results so far that may be a stretch since it looks like China Mobile’s new 4G adds could be down 15% to 25% quarter to quarter. This is only one data point but it is a worthwhile one to keep in mind along with its market share results in other countries provided by Kantar.
Source: UBS
