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Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei has warned the U.S. government that if his company is denied access to the "full-fat" Android operating system for its future smartphones, it will set out to break the dominance enjoyed by Google (and Apple) over the world's smartphone ecosystem, which, he claims, will be bad news for the U.S.
"If the U.S. government does not allow Google to provide the Android operating system," Ren told Sky News, "then the world may have a third operating system—and that is not in the best benefit or interests of the United States, allowing a little brother operating system into the world."
Huawei has been threatening/promising to launch a new smartphone operating system ever since the on-again/off-again U.S. blacklisting was announced in May. First dubbed HongMeng before morphing into HarmonyOS, the cross-platform IoT operating system was finally launched a week ago. But while the world wanted to see a lightning-fast smartphone platform, what they received instead was a clever, low-latency platform to power smart-TVs, cars and watches.
This came as little surprise to anyone following the actual statements (as opposed to the PR) coming out of Shenzhen, with the acknowledgement that Huawei has not even started the task of replicating the Google (or Apple) ecosystem of apps and developers and peripherals. Ren himself admitted a month ago that there's not really a "Plan-B" at this stage, and the company needs Google.
At the launch of HarmonyOS, the company's consumer team assured the media and industry analysts that shifting HarmonyOS to smartphones would only take "a day or two." But no-one with a technical background really believes this. It would be a major program and would require the establishment of an entirely new global ecosystem that would have to rival the depth that Apple and Google have taken more than a decade to build.
But needs must, and if the U.S. really does block Huawei's access to Google, then it will have little choice but to magic up an alternative. And with its phenomenal balance sheet (and the backing of China inc) to play with, Huawei will conjure up an alternative. And on that note, Ren warned Google (and Apple and the U.S.) that "you cannot rule out the chance that the third operating system might outrun them someday."
Ren had additional messages for the U.S., including that the U.K. would be hard pushed to abandon Huawei's 5G networking equipment despite entreaties from the Trump administration. On a visit to London this week, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton claimed British officials have said "they are looking really from square one on the Huawei issue—they were very concerned about not having any compromise in security of telecommunications in the 5G space. What they said was ‘we would like to review this and be very sure about our decision and we too are concerned about the security of our 5G telecommunications network’."
Despite this, Ren claimed the U.K. government cannot turn down the Chinese company's technology from the country's in-process 5G deployments. Huawei's CEO told Sky News that Britain "won’t say no to us as long as they go through those rigorous tests and look at it in a serious manner. "I think if they do say no," Ren said, "it won’t be to us," with the implication that economics would trump politics (no pun intended) and it would be Washington getting the bad news.
The on-again, off-again U.S. blacklisting of Huawei has become a nightmare for the U.K., which has become embarrassingly indecisive on the issue. The country has been Huawei's primary European market for networking equipment, and there is even a unit within the U.K.'s GCHQ spy agency dedicated to evaluating security concerns with Huawei and its technology.
Such a unit might have been usefully employed in Uganda and Zambia, according to a report this week in the Wall Street Journal, which claimed that Huawei employees "personally helped governments spy on their political opponents, including intercepting their encrypted communications and social media, and using cell data to track their whereabouts." There is no implication that Huawei HQ sanctioned or were even aware of these activities, and a spokesperson told the WSJ that the company "has never been engaged in ‘hacking’ activities—and rejects completely these unfounded and inaccurate allegations against our business operations. Our internal investigation shows clearly that Huawei and its employees have not been engaged in any of the activities alleged. We have neither the contracts, nor the capabilities, to do so."
All that is far from home for the U.K. government, in any case, and will not in itself give cause for concern. The politics in London are simple, the technology and commercial realities anything but. The U.K.'s leading cellular networks are mid-launch and Huawei is firmly entrenched in their plans. The fact is, with Brexit and the political uncertainty of a new shaky administration in place, there is little capacity in British politics to stop the 5G juggernaut and pay the financial penalty for doing so.
Two seemingly separate issues, but in fact just one major issue for both the U.S. tech industry and for Huawei. The world needs clarity on what the U.S. blacklisting means long-term, and there are others—first and foremost Moscow—watching with interest. If the U.S. does force China into a full-scale Android alternative, others will jump onboard. And, despite the rhetoric, the U.S. really does not want that.
So where are we? Truth be told, we are exactly where we've been for many weeks now. Huawei won't jump until Washington makes it. There is no Plan-B, but necessity will become the mother of invention when it has to. The U.K. can't decide what to do on any level, even as the major telcos push forwards with their plans and networks around the world continue to sign with Huawei. And the U.S. is wrapped up in trade talks and agricultural negotiations—the cycles for which do not mix well with the fast-moving smartphone sector. So no change.
One other point of note, though. In his interview with Sky News, Ren did acknowledge the company's work in Xinjiang—where the Uighur Muslim minority is subject to oppressive state surveillance and internment and, reportedly, at least a million are in internment camps. "We sell to carrier operators and other customers," the CEO said, "we do sell equipment in our industry but the rights to use them are in the hands of the operators and these relevant enterprises."
According to Sky News, Ren also admitted that Huawei supplies "authoritarian regimes," telling the broadcaster "I actually do not make any prejudgement of a government first before we sell to our customers. Because every country has its sovereign system. It's not in our position to interfere with the sovereignty of other states. If we did then we would be playing the game of politics right? And that's a matter for sovereign states."
For anyone following the news in China, that might be interesting to note.
