POLITICO Playbook: Trump’s triple threat

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

DRIVING THE DAY

TOP-ED — The WSJ editorial board takes aim at the incoming House Republican majority, particularly the far-right faction opposing KEVIN McCARTHY’s leadership, noting that the fractious bunch “can’t even find the votes to elect a GOP Speaker, much less agree on budget strategy or much of anything else.”

“[A] narrow GOP majority of only 222-213 requires a leader who can enforce party discipline. That’s how NANCY PELOSI has been able to govern with the mirror-image majority in the last two years. Too many House Republicans are too dimwitted to understand the uses of power and how to wield it. They’d rather rage against the machine to no useful effect. …

“The GOP dysfunction since Election Day won’t matter if it teaches Republicans that their only chance of influencing policy is to stay united. On the evidence so far, however, Republicans are the gang that couldn’t shoot straight — except at one another.”

TRUMP’S TROUBLES MOUNT — Former President DONALD TRUMP’s perils, both legal and political, continue to pile up this morning, putting his once-unassailable position atop the Republican Party in further doubt.

New threats are appearing on three separate fronts …

— The House criminal referral: After months of presenting blockbuster findings, the House Jan. 6 committee is expected to vote Monday on its final report, and all indications are that it will ask the Justice Department to charge the former president as it winds down its work.

Our colleagues Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu scooped the full list of charges the panel plans to flag for prosecutors: “18 U.S.C. 2383, insurrection; 18 U.S.C. 1512(c), obstruction of an official proceeding; and 18 U.S.C. 371, conspiracy to defraud the United States government. … The document, according to the people familiar, includes an extensive justification for the recommended charges.”

It remains unclear, they write, whether the committee’s report will go beyond those charges “or whether it will urge other criminal charges for other players in Trump’s bid to subvert his 2020 loss.”

A reminder from Jamie Gangel and Katelyn Polantz over at CNN: “The impact House referrals could have remains unclear because the Department of Justice special counsel investigation is already examining Trump in its extensive probe into January 6. But in addition to criminal referrals, committee Chairman BENNIE THOMPSON told reporters that the panel could issue five to six other categories of referrals, such as ethics referrals to the House Ethics Committee, bar discipline referrals and campaign finance referrals.”

— The DOJ investigation: Federal prosecutors were given access this year to emails sent in 2020 and 2021 between three Trump-associated lawyers — fake-elector-scheme architect JOHN EASTMAN, and DOJ lawyers JEFFREY CLARK and KEN KLUKOWSKI — and Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.).

The revelations, contained in a June court decision unsealed Friday by federal judge BERYL HOWELL, constitute “the most significant insight yet into what prosecutors are doing with evidence they have obtained in their review of figures associated with Trump’s quest to remain in power despite losing reelection,” Kyle, Nick and Josh Gerstein write.

NYT’s Alan Feuer and Adam Goldman run down some of details:

  • “Klukowski sent Mr. Perry an email eight days after the election with a document attached titled ‘Electors Clause/The Legislature Option.’ The document outlined an argument central to the fake elector scheme.”
  • “Eastman’s emails to Mr. Perry suggest that the two men traded phone calls in the weeks leading up to Jan. 6.”
  • “The court papers note that Mr. Clark exchanged several emails with Mr. Perry in February 2021, after the Capitol was stormed, but the descriptions of their contents were redacted.”

— The tax returns: The House Ways and Means Committee, now in possession of six years of Trump’s tax returns, is expected to vote Tuesday on whether to release those documents to the public just weeks before Republicans take over the House.

It’s the culmination of a nearly-four-year battle, dating to when Democrats took over the House in 2019 and sought Trump’s returns citing the need to review the IRS’s presidential audit practices. It’s possible you forgot because time is now a flat circle, but Trump remains the first presidential nominee or president since GERALD FORD to refuse to make his tax returns public.

While courts have now ruled that the committee is entitled to the records, it still has to keep the information private under strict federal privacy laws. “But there is a way around those rules,” our colleague Brian Faler explains: “RICHARD NEAL’s committee could vote privately to make them public, and that’s what the Massachusetts Democrat wants his colleagues to consider.”

Seeing Trump’s full returns has been both a Democratic Holy Grail for years, but NYT’s Charlie Savage offers a good reality check on the impact: “It is not clear whether the release of the records would reveal major findings. Prosecutors in New York had already obtained access to some Trump-related tax data, and his family business has been the subject of multiple investigations.”

The upshot …

While Trump continues to be the Republican Party’s dominant figure (and its only major declared presidential candidate), some in the GOP are quietly and cautiously growing more optimistic that his ability to defy political gravity is weakening — and that these ongoing dramas will only further stoke voter doubts about his 2024 viability and open new lanes for primary challengers.

Good Saturday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. What’s your favorite holiday hangover remedy? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

THEY’RE BACK — Following another unscientific Twitter poll in which respondents voted to lift journalists’ suspensions, ELON MUSK restored the accounts of several of the blocked figures early this morning. Though some accounts — including KEITH OLBERMANN — are still down, AARON RUPAR, DREW HARWELL and others have been returned to the platform. More from The Hill

PHOTO OF THE DAY

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. BORDER SONG: A federal appeals court on Friday turned down a Republican effort to force President JOE BIDEN’s administration to keep Title 42 in place. That leaves the Supreme Court as the last resort to save the controversial Trump-era border policy, which otherwise is set to expire Wednesday. Details from ABC

Though Democrats have largely opposed Title 42 as inhumane, its impending conclusion has the Biden administration steeling for a pre-Christmas wave of immigrants at the southern border, Myah Ward reports. Despite White House messaging that the change doesn’t mean the border is open, many more migrants are expected in the weeks ahead. DHS is warning that a surge of resources can only go so far in a broken system — and sources tell Myah it is likely to revive a STEPHEN MILLER-championed “transit ban” in Title 42’s wake that was already blocked by a court in 2020. (That would be a major new flashpoint for Dems and immigrant advocates.)

Even before Title 42 ends, resources at the border are already buckling under a crush of recent migrants. In El Paso, Texas, Nicaraguans and other new arrivals are sleeping on the streets in the cold as shelters fill up, NBC’s Gabe Gutierrez, Erika Angulo and Suzanne Gamboa report. And Yuma, Ariz., could be next for a major surge, WSJ’s Alicia Caldwell reports.

2. ON THEIR WAY OUT: The North Carolina Supreme Court struck down two major Republican elections planks — a voter ID law and recent gerrymandering — just before Democrats lose their majority on the court, per The News & Observer. Though voters flipped two seats on the court to the GOP in the midterm elections, the current four-justice liberal majority “employed a rarely used procedural move to fast-track these and a few other high-profile political cases.”

3. BARRELING FORWARD: “White House Begins Plan to Refill U.S. Emergency Oil Reserves,” by Bloomberg’s Ari Natter: “The Biden administration is making good on a plan to replenish the nation’s emergency oil reserves, starting with a 3 million barrel purchase of crude. … In addition, the DOE is planning a roughly 2 million barrel crude oil exchange to meet emergency supply needs caused by the shutdown of TC Energy Corp.’s Keystone pipeline.”

4. TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK: But the party might stop this time … Speaker NANCY PELOSI has gotten behind attaching a Senate bill to ban TikTok on government devices to the omnibus spending package, per Punchbowl’s John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman.

Meanwhile, within the Biden administration, officials are divided over whether a national security deal with the company should compel Chinese owner ByteDance to divest from TikTok’s American operations, Gavin Bade reports. If they can patch up an intra-adminstration rift, a final review from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States could come as soon as January. And concerns about TikTok are running high: CIA Director BILL BURNS told PBS NewsHour’s Judy Woodruff in a wide-ranging interview that “it’s genuinely troubling to see what the Chinese government could do to manipulate TikTok.”

5. NIP/TUCKER: “REVEALED: The Donors to Tucker Carlson’s News Org — and Their Ethical Conflicts,” by The Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger: “The non-profit that feeds the conservative Daily Caller website co-founded by Fox News host TUCKER CARLSON has accepted tens of thousands of dollars from entities and individuals who have received favorable coverage, including some who authored opinion pieces, a new filing shows. The document—the Daily Caller News Foundation’s fiscal year 2021 tax statement—includes for the first time a list of donors to the 501(c)(4) organization … The filing also reveals that Carlson … is still the foundation chairman, and has not cut back on his hours.”

6. BIG MOVE FROM DOJ: AG MERRICK GARLAND ordered federal prosecutors Friday to erase sentencing disparities for crack vs. powder cocaine. Mandatory minimums for crack cocaine have long been criticized as disproportionately targeting Black people. “Though then-Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) co-sponsored the 1986 bill creating the disparity, President Biden has since supported efforts to reverse the policy,” Axios’ Sophia Cai notes.

7. O KEVIN, MY KEVIN: “Trump Backs McCarthy for Speaker, Tells Opponents to Stand Down: ‘I Think He Deserves the Shot,’” by Breitbart’s Matthew Boyle in Miami: “Trump told the conservatives currently withholding support from House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy in McCarthy’s speakership bid to stand down in an exclusive interview … [H]e in no uncertain terms said he disagrees with their efforts—and warned that there could be serious consequences if McCarthy does not get the gavel and they could make Washington worse for conservatives. … ‘I think it’s a very dangerous game that’s being played,’ Trump said. ‘It’s a very dangerous game. Some bad things could happen.’”

Quote of the day: “Look, we had [JOHN] BOEHNER and he was a strange person but we ended up with PAUL RYAN who was ten times worse.’”

8. 2024 TEA LEAVES: “White House hosts closed-door meetings of Biden political allies,” by NBC’s Peter Nicholas, Mike Memoli, Jonathan Allen and Carol Lee: “The White House held a series of closed-door meetings Thursday, from which Democratic strategists and activists came out with an emphatic message: Go out and sell the president’s record. In the latest sign that President Joe Biden is preparing to mount a re-election campaign, a battery of senior White House officials delivered presentations on Biden’s tenure and gave briefings on the economy, climate change and the way forward.”

9. WILD STORY: “A Narrow Escape, a Massacre, an Invite to Washington,” by Foreign Policy’s Robbie Gramer: “U.S. diplomats organized a plan to help smuggle Chad’s pro-democracy opposition leader out of the country as security forces from Chad’s transitional president hunted him down in a wave of deadly crackdowns against protesters in October. The plan, dubbed ‘Operation Moses’ by some officials, entailed ferrying SUCCÈS MASRA to the border of neighboring Cameroon using the U.S. ambassador to Chad’s own embassy vehicles …

“But after staying in hiding for over a week — avoiding the security forces of transitional President MAHAMAT IDRISS DÉBY ITNO — Masra successfully escaped the country before ‘Operation Moses’ could be implemented. … As U.S. officials in Chad were scrambling to find a way to help Masra escape and witnessing some pro-democracy protesters be slaughtered at the gates of the U.S. Embassy, other officials in Washington were preparing an invitation to fete the very man who orchestrated this bloody crackdown at a major summit.”

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 15 funnies

GREAT WEEKEND READS:

— “The Night Raids,” by Lynzy Billing in ProPublica: “For many Afghans, terror came when night fell. Over the years, CIA-backed operations killed countless civilians. The U.S. left without being held accountable. A reporter returns to investigate her past and unravel the legacy of the secretive Zero Units.”

— “The Untold Story of the Insular Texas Family That Invaded the U.S. Capitol,” by Robert Draper in Texas Monthly: “The Munns became a national curiosity after five of them were indicted for participating in the insurrection. But the full scope of their malignant behavior is little known—including to the federal prosecutors tasked with investigating their crimes.”

— “Stop Complaining about the ‘Gerontocracy.’ Older People Are More Vital Than Ever,” by Michael Clinton for Esquire: “Some pundits want to replace everyone over 50. But toxic ageism is the real problem facing America in politics and business.”

— “The Woman Who Made Online Dating Into a ‘Science,’” by The Atlantic’s Kaitlyn Tiffany: “Almost 20 years ago, Helen Fisher helped revolutionize dating. She has no regrets.”

— “Why the Age of American Progress Ended,” by The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson: “Invention alone can’t change the world; what matters is what happens next.”

— “The Making of Hakeem Jeffries,” by The Narrative Wars’ Michael Lange: “From Insurgent Challenger to Insulated Incumbent: A deep dive on the new House Democratic Leader’s storied rise through Brooklyn Politics.”

— “A Rural Doctor and the Fight Against Covid,” by Sara Israelsen-Hartley in The Assembly: “Physicians in rural areas have struggled to get their patients vaccinated against COVID-19. North Carolina has led the way in developing a creative solution.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Meghan McCain thinks Michelle Obama gives the best advice.

Joe Kennedy III will be tapped as the next special envoy to Northern Ireland.

J. Robert Oppenheimer is getting a DOE reprieve on his security clearance.

Patrick McHenry loved reading “In the Hurricane’s Eye,” plus more favorite Hill books of 2022 via Roll Call.

IN MEMORIAM — “Juanita Duggan who served as Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America’s first female president and CEO from 1998 to 2006 passed away Tuesday, December 13,” the organization announced. “A four-time CEO and leader of highly regulated industry trade associations, Duggan spent decades as a policy expert in the Senate, the White House, and the private sector.”

— “Frank Shakespeare, TV Executive Behind a New Nixon, Dies at 97,” by NYT’s Douglas Martin: “He helped dispel the candidate’s stiff image for the 1968 presidential campaign and then led U.S. government broadcasting efforts overseas under Nixon and Reagan.”

OUT AND ABOUT — POLITICO held its annual holiday party and inaugural POLITICO Awards at Union Station’s East Hall on Friday night, honoring our colleagues who went above and beyond in 2022. After the awards show, emceed by Brakkton Booker and Luiza Savage, it was dinner, drinks and dancing till past midnight. The big winners …

The Collaboration Award: The teams who launched POLITICO’s new mobile app.
The Innovator Award: The team behind Stakeholder Management, a new tool for POLITICO Pro subscribers.
The Money Maker Award: The E&E News sales team.
The Impact Award: Maura Reynolds, POLITICO Magazine’s deputy editor for ideas.
POLITICO of the Year: Katie Millette, director of talent acquisition.
Hall of Fame Inductees: Josh Gerstein and Alex Ward for their reporting on the draft Dobbs decision. During their acceptance speech, Josh and Alex were surprised with a video from Bob Woodward.

— SPOTTED at Josh Dawsey’s holiday party at his D.C. condo Friday night: Jonathan Kott, Tammy Haddad, Matt Dornic, Ali Rubin, Marc Adelman, Alex Isenstadt, Hailey Fuchs, Isaac Arnsdorf, John McCarthy, Eli Yokley, Evan Hollander, Meridith McGraw, Zack Nolan, Tyler Pager, Wes Lowery and John Hudson.

MEDIA MOVE — Ashley Murray is joining States Newsroom’s D.C. bureau as a senior reporter. She previously has been D.C. bureau chief for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

TRANSITIONS — James Rubin is rejoining the State Department as special envoy and coordinator of the Global Engagement Center. He previously was diplomatic counselor to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development secretary-general. … Witney Schneidman is now coordinator for Prosper Africa at USAID. He previously chaired the Africa practice at Covington & Burling. … Steve Gonzalez is joining the House Veterans’ Affairs GOP as deputy staff director. He most recently was SVP of government relations at Career Education Colleges and Universities, and is a House Budget alum. …

… Greta Gao is now senior counsel in the office of legislative affairs at the Department of Justice. She most recently was chief oversight counsel for the House Oversight Committee. … Naomie Pierre-Louis is now chief of staff for Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.). She most recently was comms director for her campaign and CEO and founder of Percipi Global. … Ned Shell is now counselor to the undersecretary for domestic finance at Treasury, where he’ll work on climate issues. He most recently was global head of climate finance policy at Bloomberg LP, and is a Biden campaign alum.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Pope Francis … Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Donald Payne Jr. (D-N.J.) and Tracey Mann (R-Kan.) … RNC’s Tommy Hicks … Chelsea Manning … Kristin Slevin of the DCCC … Randall Gerard of Cogent Strategies … Kelli Arena of the NSA … POLITICO’s Allan James Vestal, Brendan Bordelon and Samantha Bailey … E&E News’ Claudine Hellmuth … National Geographic’s Kam Burns … WaPo’s Sabrina Rodríguez … Olivia Shields of the House Energy & Commerce GOP … “Theoretical Boss” Adam Finkel of Rep. Tom O’Halleran’s (D-Ariz.) office … Noah Rothman of Commentary and MSNBC … Valeria Ojeda-Avitia … Taylor Foy of Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-Iowa) office … Eli Pariser of New_ Public … Shane Smith … Holly Harris of the Justice Action Network … former Reps. Steve Knight (R-Calif.) and Rick Nolan (D-Minn.) … Venable’s Tom Quinn … Emma Vaughn … Sheppie and Mike Abramowitz ... Doug Landry ... Bailey Childers … Joe Ballard of Rep. Mayra Flores’ (R-Texas) office … Clare Gannon ... Jessica Lovejoy of 50+1 Strategies … Carol Thompson O’Connell … Jessica Stone … Aryeh Bourkoff … Amsale Legesse … Bloomberg’s Chris Collins … Herald Group’s Jack O’Brien

SUNDAY SO FAR (Full Sunday show listings here):

ABC “This Week”: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott … Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) … Ashish Jha … Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova. Panel: Chris Christie, Donna Brazile, Catherine Lucey and Astead Herndon.

Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Ben Carson … Harmeet Dhillon … Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick … Brandon Judd … Utah AG Sean Reyes.

MSNBC “Velshi”: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) … Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.).

CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) … Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) … Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) … Scott Gottlieb.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) … Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson … LA Mayor Karen Bass. Panel: Eugene Daniels, Donna Edwards, Stephen Hayes and Carol Lee.

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

CLARIFICATION: This newsletter has been updated to more precisely describe the history of presidential tax disclosure practices.