POLITICO Playbook: How the threats to Biden’s presidency got real this week

Presented by the Financial Services Forum

DRIVING THE DAY

We have generally been bullish about President JOE BIDEN’S chances for success tackling three big things that will define his presidency: the economy, the pandemic and passage of his legislative agenda.

But this was one of those weeks where a few data points served to remind that the whole project still could go sideways.

The economy …

Friday’s jobs news could be a blip that will be revised in the future, or it could be the harbinger of more bad news. Politically, the report was the first time this year that we saw the right gain any traction with a credible policy argument against Biden. The president, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN and press secretary JEN PSAKI all found it necessary to respond to — as the NYT framed it — “business groups and Republicans warning that the president’s policies are causing a labor shortage and that his broader agenda risks stoking runaway inflation.” (Even TUCKER CARLSON, who has had little interest in the meat of Biden economic policy, led with the jobs news Friday night.)

— More from WaPo’s Catherine Rampell on whether the April jobs report means there’s “a shortage of jobs or a shortage of workers,” and Henry Olsen on how “Biden officials are playing down the risk of inflation.”

The pandemic …

We may never reach herd immunity in the United States, a significant percentage of the population seems hell-bent on refusing vaccination, and health officials are still very scared about emerging variants. On the flip side, the CDC continues to be frustratingly slow to revise its guidance when warranted. The latest examples include its recent outdoor mask advisory and its better-late-than-never acknowledgement Friday about aerosol transmission of the coronavirus.

— For a deep dive on that, read this thread by Zeynep Tufekci.

The Biden agenda …

It is the nature of politicians to use the latest headlines as evidence to support their pre-existing policies. Biden said Friday that the antidote to the weak economic news was to pass the American Jobs Plan. This makes no sense. The antidote was the $1.9 trillion stimulus designed to heal the economy in the near term; the AJP is designed to deal with long-term structural issues in the American economy. Even if it passed tomorrow, it wouldn’t fix whatever was holding back the April employment numbers.

That gap between how Biden talks about his proposals and what’s actually in them is starting to become a thing. One of Biden’s greatest assets, according to polls, is his credibility. If that erodes, everything else could go with it.

— On a related topic, read N.Y. Mag’s Olivia Nuzzi on “How the White House Polices Language in Washington.”

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

WHAT DONALD TRUMP IS UP TO: Lots of familiar material in this WaPo overview of the Trump post-presidency — his plotting revenge against pro-impeachment Republicans, bending House GOP leaders to his will, controlling the party from Florida, lacking interest in a presidential library — but one detail about his obsession with the recount in Maricopa County, Ariz., stuck out:

“He talks about the recount constantly, asking for updates several times a day, and has become especially fixated on the UV lights being used to inspect the ballots.”

There’s no doubt about his continuing influence on Republicans even in blue states. In Virginia, which he lost by 10 points, GOP candidates are trying to out-Trump each other. The WaPo reports this mind-blowing fact about the Republican gubernatorial nominating convention today: “Of the four contenders who’ve led in polls and fundraising, only Del. KIRK COX (Colonial Heights) will say President Biden was legitimately elected.”

This kind of poison about the 2020 election is everywhere.

— Here’s Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) casually telling someone he “led” the fight against Biden in the Senate on Jan. 6. The video

— Reps. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) and MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) are on tour, the latest evidence that GOP politics on the MAGA fringe has become akin to WWF fare from the 1980s scripted by VINCE MCMAHON. Only these people are actual elected members of Congress. Here’s Greene’s opening line call-and-response at the duo’s rally at The Villages retirement community near Orlando on Friday: “Tell me who’s your president?!” “Donald Trump!” More from Ben Leonard

— Meanwhile, in Ohio: “The Ohio Republican Party’s leaders called on Rep. ANTHONY GONZALEZ to resign for voting to impeach former President Donald Trump.” More from the Cincy Enquirer

— The most entertaining Trump read of the day is by Airmail, comparing the former president to an, um, “over-the-hill porn star.”

FOR YOUR KIDS (AND YOU): Don’t miss NASA’s Ingenuity helicopter zipping around in the thin air above the surface of Mars. The best part is actually the audio of the helicopter’s hum. Use headphones for the full effect!

BIDEN’S SATURDAY — The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS have nothing on their public schedules.

PLAYBOOK READS

IF YOU READ ONLY ONE THING TODAY — It is not surprising that the Trump administration obtained the phone records of reporters during a leak hunt last year. What is surprising is that the Biden Justice Department, in recent letters to the targeted journalists, appears to be defending the action.

— “Trump Justice Department secretly obtained Post reporters’ phone records,” WaPo: “In three separate letters dated May 3 and addressed to Post reporters ELLEN NAKASHIMA and GREG MILLER, and former Post reporter ADAM ENTOUS, the Justice Department wrote they were ‘hereby notified that pursuant to legal process the United States Department of Justice received toll records associated with the following telephone numbers for the period from April 15, 2017 to July 31, 2017.’ The letters listed work, home or cell phone numbers covering that three-and-a-half-month period.

“It is rare for the Justice Department to use subpoenas to get records of reporters in leak investigations, and such moves must be approved by the attorney general. The letters do not say when Justice Department leadership approved the decision to seek the reporters’ records, but a department spokesman said it happened in 2020, during the Trump administration.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

MAKING VISITOR LOGS PUBLIC (AGAIN) —“Biden administration releases first batch of White House visitor logs,” by Ben Leonard: “The batch released included 400 records from Jan. 20 to the end of January. The White House pledged to release the logs monthly. …

“The White House did not include records ‘related to purely personal guests of the First and Second Families’ nor did it release ‘records related to a small group of particularly sensitive meetings.’ They described visits of potential Supreme Court nominees as such sensitive meetings. For that reason, perhaps, there were only a handful of individuals listed as having come to the White House to directly meet with the president himself.”

The caveats included in this policy mean that the White House can exclude any names for any reason and without any requirement to explain it to the public.

JOE, JOHN AND JAIR — “Biden contemplates a climate deal with the ‘Trump of the tropics,’” by Zack Colman and Michael Grunwald: “Biden and his climate envoy, JOHN KERRY, have dived headlong into talks with Brazilian President JAIR BOLSONARO, a populist who has scoffed at the dangers of climate change even as vast swaths of the Amazon rainforest disappear on his watch. Bolsonaro … has even asked the U.S. for a $1 billion-a-year pay-off in return for pledges to stop the deforestation, while refusing demands for accountability. That proposal has fallen flat with the United States.

“Cutting a climate bargain with Bolsonaro is a politically and ethically fraught bargain for any American president to contemplate. Still, Bolsonaro holds the keys to 60 percent of the Amazon, a crucial resource that absorbs 5 percent of the world’s annual carbon dioxide emissions. Unless Kerry can find a way to save the Amazon, whose forests shrank 4,000 square miles between August 2019 and July 2020 in Brazil alone, there may be little chance that the world will reach the targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement and avoid disaster.

STEPS TOWARD GUN REFORM — “Justice Dept. Proposes Rule to Crack Down on ‘Ghost Guns,’” NYT: “The Justice Department proposed a rule on Friday that would expand the definition of a firearm and help close a loophole that has allowed people to buy so-called ghost guns, firearms that are easily assembled from kits but are not regulated by federal gun laws. … President Biden ordered the Justice Department last month to find a way within 30 days to curb the spread of ghost guns, with an eye toward keeping them from criminals who might not otherwise be able to pass a background check and buy a gun.”

CONGRESS

WILL THIS QUELL HER CONSERVATIVE CRITICS? — “Stefanik privately pledges to serve only through 2022 in House GOP leadership,” by Melanie Zanona and Olivia Beavers: “The New York Republican is telling her GOP colleagues that she intends to finish out the rest of this current cycle as conference chair if she is ultimately elevated to the No. 3 leadership position, according to multiple Republican lawmakers familiar with the conversations. Then, in the new Congress, she intends to seek the top job on the House Education and Labor Committee, those sources said, a longtime priority for her. …

“With Stefanik only vowing to fill out the rest of this term in leadership, it could assuage not only the conservative hard-liners, but other members who have complained about how speedy the Cheney replacement process has been. Several other Republicans have been floated for the conference chair position at some point, including Rep. JIM BANKS (R-Ind.), chairman of the Republican Study Committee, and Rep. MIKE JOHNSON (R-La.), the vice conference chair.”

MOVEMENT ON POLICE REFORM — “Police-Overhaul Efforts Draws Bipartisan Agreement on Key Issues,” WSJ: “Democratic and Republican staff in Congress are drafting language for possible police-overhaul legislation that would limit the transfer of some military equipment to local departments, ban police use of chokeholds except in life-threatening situations and set federal standards for so-called no-knock warrants, according to people familiar with the talks. …

“The congressional effort is being led by Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.), who sponsored a GOP bill, and Rep. KAREN BASS (D-Calif.), who sponsored a Democratic bill, as well as Sen. CORY BOOKER (D-N.J.). They, along with Sens. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) and DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) and Reps. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.), BRIAN PITZPATRICK (R-Pa.) and PETE SAUBER (R-Minn.), are seeking to find compromise legislation that can pass both chambers.”

— Another angle to this: “Democrats’ biggest test on police reform: Delivering a deal that pleases activists,” by Maya King, Nicholas Wu and Marianne LeVine

POLITICS ROUNDUP

VOTING RIGHTS LATEST — “Inside Democrats’ Scramble to Repel the G.O.P. Voting Push,” NYT: “Democrats are struggling to build a surefire legal strategy to block new Republican-backed restrictions on voting rights, relying on broadly worded warnings and urgent pleas that are designed, in part, to build political pressure on the White House, Congress and the Justice Department to act, as well as to engage their supporters to mobilize in advance of the 2022 midterm elections.

“The approach is aimed at persuading recalcitrant Senate Democrats in Washington to pass a sweeping federal elections bill, painting the new Republican laws in the news media as suspect on arrival, and convincing the swing voters who last year helped elect President Biden that the G.O.P. is more interested in fixing elections for itself than in winning those voters back.”

ABOUT THAT ARIZONA REVIEW — “Arizona audit postpones plan to interview voters that raised Justice Department concerns,” WaPo: “The Arizona Senate will hold off on a plan to contact voters as part of a Republican-commissioned election recount that raised concerns from the Justice Department about voter intimidation, state Senate President KAREN FANN (R) said Friday. … [The head of the DOJ’s civil rights division, PAMELA S. KARLAN] raised questions about the contractor’s stated plans to ‘identify voter registrations that did not make sense’ and interview voters via phone and ‘physical canvassing.’”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE EYES OF TEXAS — “Democrat revives Texas bill restricting transgender students’ sports participation in apparent act of retaliation against his party,” Texas Tribune

MICHIGAN GOP FINDS A GOV CANDIDATE — “Detroit police chief preps Michigan governor campaign against Whitmer,” by Alex Isenstadt: “Detroit Police Chief JAMES CRAIG, a Republican and a veteran of police departments around the country, is preparing to challenge Democratic Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER in Michigan. … Craig has spent recent days meeting with GOP leaders, including RON WEISER, the chair of the Michigan Republican Party [and] has also spoken with Arizona Gov. DOUG DUCEY, the chair of the Republican Governors Association.”

OVERHEARD IN A HIPSTER COFFEE SHOP — “Conservative activists accused of 2020 voter intimidation robocalls lose appeal,” Detroit News: “Two conservative activists authorities allege organized thousands of robocalls aimed at discouraging voters ahead of the 2020 presidential election have lost an appeal to toss the case against them, Michigan Attorney General DANA NESSEL announced Friday.

“In October, JACK BURKMAN and JACOB WOHL were bound over to Wayne County Circuit Court on multiple felony charges, including voter intimidation and conspiracy to commit an election law violation. … Burkman and Wohl appealed to the Michigan Court of Appeals in March. Their application was denied Thursday, meaning the case heads to trial, Nessel said in a statement.”

ALONG THE BORDER — “Overcrowded Border Jails Give Way to Packed Migrant Child Shelters,” NYT: “The problem has moved [from the border] to other facilities, like convention centers in Dallas, San Diego and Long Beach, Calif., which are nearing capacity as funds for more space are scarce. The migrant children are far better cared for at the new facilities, operated by the Department of Health and Human Services, than they were at crammed jails run by the Department of Homeland Security’s Customs and Border Protection, according to administration officials.

“But health department officials are taking about a month on average to move the children and teenagers out of government custody and into the care of a family member or sponsor in the United States.”

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

— “Two Assholes Lost in the Woods: An Oral History of ‘Pine Barrens,’” by The Ringer’s Alan Siegel: “Twenty years after it aired, DAVID CHASE and Co. look back on one of the wildest, boldest, funniest episodes of ‘The Sopranos’ ever made.”

— “The Untold Story of How Jeff Bezos Beat the Tabloids,” by Brad Stone for Bloomberg Businessweek: “When a gossip rag went after the CEO, he retaliated with the brutal, brilliant efficiency he used to build his business empire.”

— “Into the Mystical and Inexplicable World of Dowsing,” by Dan Schwartz for Outside: “For centuries, dowsers have claimed the ability to find groundwater, precious metals, and other quarry using divining rods and an uncanny intuition. Is it the real deal or woo-woo?”

— “Shark Attacks in Maine Were Unthinkable — Until Last Summer,” by Kathryn Miles for Down East: “Last year’s first-ever fatal shark attack jolted Mainers into acknowledging that great whites regularly swim off the state’s shores — and that there’s plenty about them we don’t know.”

— “The Battle for 1042 Cutler Street,” by WaPo’s Eli Saslow in Schenectady, N.Y.: “As landlords and tenants go broke across the U.S., the next crisis point of the pandemic approaches.”

— “The Equity Mess,” by Reason’s Matt Welch: “Despite their professed goals, Democrats’ pandemic policies have widened disparities between races, classes, and genders.”

— “Ending the Kennedy Romance,” by Michael Kazin for New York Review: “The first volume of Frederik Logevall’s biography of JFK reveals the scope of his ambition and the weakness of his political commitments.”

— FROM THE ARCHIVES: “Comedy Isn’t Funny,” by Chris Smith for N.Y. Mag, March 13, 1995 (h/t Shawn McCreesh, who recommends reading this before the ELON MUSK episode of “SNL” tonight).

INTERESTING TWITTER THREADS:

— The realignment that’s scrambling U.K. politics, by Gavin Barwell

— Inside the evolution of Elise Stefanik, by NPR’s Brian Mann

— The hidden history of a famous image of Ulysses Grant, by ASU’s Brooks D. Simpson

— Why we need to think about the unavailability of child care as a component of the labor shortage, by Reuters’ Jonnelle Marte

— What Tucker Carlson gets wrong about Covid-19 vaccine side effects, by Pradheep J. Shanker

— Could polls have predicted the Jan. 6 insurrection? Not really, by Penn’s Dan Hopkins

— Why Moderna waving its patent won’t necessarily mean a major increase in vaccine production, by James Krellenstein

— The tough environmental choices posed by the batteries used in electric vehicles, by NYT’s Eric Lipton

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 15 funnies

PLAYBOOKERS

FULL DISCLOSURE: A gentleman named CHARLES PERUTO JR. is running for district attorney in Philadelphia, and we couldn’t help but notice this unusual part of his official bio, titled “The Girl in my Bathtub.” “There shouldn’t have to be a section for this on anyone’s campaign site, but because some people will not let this go away, I must address it,” it begins.

IN MEMORIAM — “Rachel Zoll, much-admired AP religion writer, dead at 55,” AP: “Zoll covered religion in all its aspects, from the spiritual to the political, and her stories reached a global audience. But her influence was far greater than that. Other publications often followed her lead, and AP staffers around the world depended on her generosity and guidance. … Zoll was at the forefront of coverage of two papal transitions, the clergy sex abuse scandal in the Catholic Church, and tensions within many denominations over race, same-sex marriage and the role of women.”

SPOTTED: former VP Mike Pence having lunch Friday at the Country Club of Colorado in Colorado Springs. … Mark Meadows in coach on a flight from DCA to Atlanta this morning.

TRANSITIONS — Evan Chapman will be deputy chief of staff and legislative director for Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Va.). He previously was director of government relations at the American Association of Port Authorities. … Ian Gansler is joining the American Association of Port Authorities as government relations associate. He most recently was at O’Neill and Associates.

WEDDINGS — Dustin Carmack, a research fellow for technology and national security at the Heritage Foundation and a DNI/John Ratcliffe and Ron DeSantis alum, and Hannah Carmack, who works in congressional affairs at DOJ and is a Martha Roby alum, got married April 25 at Riverwood Mansion in Nashville. They met through mutual friends while working on Capitol Hill. Pic … Another pic

— Valentina Stackl and Alexander Campbell, via NYT: “Ms. Stackl, 35, a senior communications specialist for Greenpeace USA, and Mr. Campbell, 33, a policy adviser for Representative Jesús G. García, Democrat of Illinois, were married March 20 in the bride’s mother’s backyard in Silver Spring, Md.”

— Emorie Broemel and Philip Swartzfager II, via NYT: “Broemel, a senior director of government relations at ViacomCBS … [and] Swartzfager, a manager of government relations at PayPal … were married April 17 before eight guests at Christ Church Cathedral in Nashville, where the bride grew up.”

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (6-0) … Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) (7-0) and John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) (6-0) … L.A. Times’ Chris Megerian … Amy Little Thomas … McClatchy’s Dave Catanese … CNN’s Ed Meagher … the Herald Group’s Ashley Pratte … Stephen Peters … Bill Oldaker … Melissa Moss of Moss Advisors … Forbes Tate Partners’ Meghan DiMuzio … Miranda Peterson … John Martin … Qorvis’ Grace Fenstermaker … Maury Donahue … NBC News’ Clare Hiler … GMMB’s Anson Kaye … NPR’s André Bransford … former Sen. Dennis DeConcini (D-Ariz.) … Claire Guthrie Gastanaga … John Stirrup ... Tom McCuin … Ami Fields-Meyer … Manuela Tobías … Naomi Klein … J. Peter Donald

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

  • Gray TV

    “Full Court Press”: Labor Secretary Marty Walsh … Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) … Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.).

  • FOX

    “Fox News Sunday”: Michael McConnell … Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.). Panel: Karl Rove, Susan Page and Jonathan Swan. Power Player: Newton Minow.

  • CNN

    “State of the Union”: Jeff Zients … House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) … Utah Gov. Spencer Cox.

  • CBS

    “Face the Nation”: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo … Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) … Neel Kashkari … Scott Gottlieb … Michael Lewis.

  • NBC

    “Meet the Press”: Anthony Fauci … Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) … Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan. Panel: Cornell Belcher, Hallie Jackson, Danielle Pletka and Jake Sherman.

  • MSNBC

    “The Sunday Show”: Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.) … Rachel Bitecofer … Daina Ramey Berry … Ibram X. Kendi … Deon Jones … Ty Seidule … Phillip Atiba Goff … Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.).

  • CNN

    “Inside Politics”: Panel: Molly Ball, Astead Herndon, Kaitlan Collins and Paul Kane.

  • ABC

    “This Week”: Anthony Fauci. Panel: Chris Christie, Rahm Emanuel, Yvette Simpson and Jane Coaston.

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