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An Unplanned Failure: The Simple Reason Trump’s Reelection Chances Are Fading

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This article is more than 3 years old.

With election day a little over a week away, President Trump is trailing his rival and Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, who is ahead in the national polls and in several key battleground states. While it is very possible Trump may still win the unprecedented election, many pollsters and pundits see a Biden victory as more likely. The reason isn’t necessarily because of Trump’s politics, it’s because of his plans….

Or lack of them.

As a President who is fond of long rallies and short tweets, for five years Trump’s leadership style allowed him to galvanize a base of voters who are attracted to his nationalist focus and no-holds-barred campaign style. But the long and short of it is that while Trump’s chaotic and disorganized approach to governing may be what thrills his supporters and frustrates his critics, it is also the reason why Trump fails at the essence of successful political leadership, or any leadership for that matter:

Planning your work, and working your plan.

Last week the Lincoln Project released a political advertisement that illustrated the President’s weakness related to plans, or the lack thereof. The ad, which has been viewed over 3.3 million times on Twitter alone, shows clips of President Trump promising a healthcare plan “soon”— over 15 times — beginning in 2017. The most recent assertion by the President of an imminent healthcare plan was this month, just weeks before the election.

With less than ten days to go before the election, Trump still hasn’t delivered it.

The long awaited “infrastructure week” that has been promised since 2017? That plan hasn’t been released either. Nor have the Trump administration’s detailed plans for comprehensive immigration reform, education reform, substantial criminal justice reform, nor plans for major regulatory reform. In fact, Trump’s penchant for declaring an imminent plan to be delivered is one of his most common rhetorical devices — and most frequently undelivered promises.

There is the also President’s lack of fidelity to plans on how to respond to the pandemic. Despite pleas by adversaries and allies alike, the President frequently disregards the advice of scientific experts and avoids the kind of federal planning that even his own advisors argue would help address the surging spread of the virus. He even famously disbanded the very team established by his predecessor President Obama that was intended to help plan the government’s response to the type of pandemic we are experiencing right now. These decisions illustrate how it’s not that Trump just doesn’t produce plans of his own: it’s that he doesn’t like the plans of others either.

Which is the ultimate reason why Trump’s campaign is struggling in 2020 and why it’s a cautionary tale to leaders of all backgrounds, regardless of their politics.

Yes, leaders need to be adaptive and resilient, and they need to be able to pivot unconventionally when circumstances merit. But leaders without a strategy and a plan aren’t really leaders at all. They are more like tumbleweeds, rolling on the ground without purpose or aim — and ultimately they become victims of circumstance, not design. Like tumbleweeds, unplanned leaders might be able to drop some fruitful seeds here and there, but they don’t ultimately end up in the place most suitable for their survival. They end up being unwanted nuisances, accumulating in unwanted places at unwanted times.

Trump’s current campaign is exactly that: an unplanned exercise in opportunism and conspiracy-laced lectures fueled more by fear and loathing than by focus and facts. But while Trump is heavy on derision, he is light on direction. And understanding exactly how he would fight to combat the pandemic and restore the American economy during a second four years has become an open question that he has consistently refused to answer. Without plans, it’s hard to get a sense of where Trump could be headed, and as a result, where we, the members of the nation he leads, could be headed with him.

After four years, Trump’s followers continue to be unabated in their admiration of his role as the most unconventional President in American history. But for his critics, and those who are students of leadership, Trump’s campaign struggles are not surprising at all. In fact, they are predictable. If you don’t plan for what is ahead, you are not only ignoring what is necessary, you are unnecessarily playing with fate. That kind of leadership style won’t win you success…

And it likely won’t win Trump reelection either.

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