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Swapping Jacob deGrom for Justin Verlander actually improved the Mets’ World Series odds

Only days after watching starter Jacob deGrom—arguably the greatest pitcher of his generation—leave for the Texas Rangers, the New York Mets added reigning Cy Young-winner Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86 million deal.

As far as the argument for which pitcher means more for their team, it appears the Mets and Verlander have the edge.

Over at BetMGM, the Mets’ 2023 World Series odds went on a rollercoaster ride, moving from +1100 before deGrom left for Texas, to +1700 after he signed with the Rangers and then back up to +900 on Monday following the acquisition of Verlander.

Yes, that’s correct. Oddsmakers believe Verlander provides more value to the Mets than deGrom.

Here’s how the two players stack up going back to 2018:

Jacob deGrom

Standard Pitching
Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
2018 30 NYM NL 10 9 .526 1.70 32 32 0 1 0 0 217.0 152 48 41 10 46 3 269 5 0 2 835 218 1.98 0.912 6.3 0.4 1.9 11.2 5.85 AS,CYA-1,MVP-5
2019 31 NYM NL 11 8 .579 2.43 32 32 0 0 0 0 204.0 154 59 55 19 44 1 255 7 0 2 804 169 2.67 0.971 6.8 0.8 1.9 11.3 5.80 AS,CYA-1,MVP-10
2020 32 NYM NL 4 2 .667 2.38 12 12 0 0 0 0 68.0 47 21 18 7 18 0 104 0 0 4 268 180 2.26 0.956 6.2 0.9 2.4 13.8 5.78 CYA-3
2021 33 NYM NL 7 2 .778 1.08 15 15 0 1 1 0 92.0 40 14 11 6 11 0 146 1 0 0 324 373 1.24 0.554 3.9 0.6 1.1 14.3 13.27 AS,CYA-9
2022 34 NYM NL 5 4 .556 3.08 11 11 0 0 0 0 64.1 40 22 22 9 8 0 102 0 0 0 239 126 2.13 0.746 5.6 1.3 1.1 14.3 12.75
162 Game Avg. 13 9 .590 2.52 34 34 0 1 0 0 216 166 66 61 19 49 2 261 3 0 4 849 155 2.62 0.998 6.9 0.8 2.1 10.9 5.30
Justin Verlander
Standard Pitching
Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
2018 35 HOU AL 16 9 .640 2.52 34 34 0 1 1 0 214.0 156 63 60 28 37 0 290 8 2 5 833 164 2.78 0.902 6.6 1.2 1.6 12.2 7.84 AS,CYA-2,MVP-10
2019 36 HOU AL 21 6 .778 2.58 34 34 0 2 1 0 223.0 137 66 64 36 42 0 300 6 0 4 847 179 3.27 0.803 5.5 1.5 1.7 12.1 7.14 AS,CYA-1,MVP-11
2020 37 HOU AL 1 0 1.000 3.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 3 2 2 2 1 0 7 0 0 0 21 156 5.69 0.667 4.5 3.0 1.5 10.5 7.00
2022 39 HOU AL 18 4 .818 1.75 28 28 0 0 0 0 175.0 116 43 34 12 29 0 185 6 0 3 666 220 2.49 0.829 6.0 0.6 1.5 9.5 6.38 AS,CYA-1,MVP-10
162 Game Avg. 17 9 .647 3.24 34 34 0 2 1 0 223 187 87 80 23 62 2 226 7 1 6 909 132 3.36 1.117 7.6 0.9 2.5 9.1 3.63
W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
Verlander missed two seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery and all he did was come back in 2022 to win the American League Cy Young, a World Series title and pitch likely the best season of his life.
The Mets are banking on him being able to replicate that for at least two more years as he joins a rotation with former Detroit Tigers teammate Max Scherzer.
Oddsmakers certainly believe it’s possible. But the Mets haven’t won the World Series since 1986 and the National League East is reloading up and down the division once again.
Either way, it’s a positive sign for New York given how the offseason started out.

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