Russia's Forces 'Increasingly Divorced' From Realities in Ukraine: ISW

Russian forces are continuing to prioritize "meaningless" offensive operations in Ukraine's east instead of focusing on defending against Ukrainian's advancing counteroffensives in the eastern Kharkiv region, according to a leading think tank.

Institute for the Study of War said Russian troops are attacking Bakhmut and villages near Donetsk City that are "of emotional significance to pro-war residents of the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) but little other importance," in an assessment on Saturday.

They appear to be directing "some of the very limited reserves available in Ukraine to these efforts rather than to the vulnerable Russian defensive lines hastily thrown up along the Oskil River in eastern Kharkiv Oblast," ISW added.

Russia suffered a major setback in its war against Ukraine last week when a Ukrainian counteroffensive forced its troops back from large swaths of the country's northeast.

The ISW said the Russians cannot hope to make large enough gains around Bakhmut or Donetsk City to derail Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, but appear "to be continuing an almost robotic effort to gain ground in Donetsk Oblast that seems increasingly divorced from the overall realities of the theater."

Russian troops' failure to rush large-scale reinforcements to the eastern Kharkiv and Luhansk regions is leaving most of the Russian-occupied northeast of the country "highly vulnerable" to continuing counteroffensives from Ukrainian forces, the ISW said.

It comes as British defense officials said Russia is likely to mount a ""stubborn defense" of the Luhansk oblast, but may not have the resources to handle a further push by Ukrainian forces.

The U.K.'s Ministry of Defense said on Saturday that Russian troops had established a defensive line between the Oskil River and the town of Svatove along the Luhansk border.

"Russia likely sees maintaining control of this zone as important because it is transited by one of the few main resupply routes Russia still controls from the Belgorod region of Russia," the ministry said in its assessment.

That line sits along the border of Luhansk oblast, officials noted, and "any substantial loss of territory" in Luhansk will "unambiguously undermine Russia's strategy."

"Russia will likely attempt to conduct a stubborn defense of this area, but it is unclear whether Russia's front line forces have sufficient reserves or adequate morale to withstand another concerted Ukrainian assault."

In Sunday's intelligence update, British defense officials said Russia has increased its targeting of civilian infrastructure "even where it probably perceives no immediate military effect" over the past seven days.

"As it faces setbacks on the front lines, Russia has likely extended the locations it is prepared to strike in an attempt to directly undermine the morale of the Ukrainian people and government," officials said.